It’s no secret that the advertising and marketing industry gets walloped quicker and harder than most any industry during a recession. At least that’s how it played out in the last dip and how it’s looking this time around.
If you look at some of the specific crises driving this recession you’ve got a perfect storm:
- The credit crunch caused by the mortgage crisis
- Disappointing 4th quarter retail sales
- The prospect of one or more U.S. automakers going under
- The very real threat to print media (see this and this)
It’s a domino effect goes something like this: Consumers can’t afford to buy > stores can’t sell > manufacturers don’t make > less money for ads > pink slips for creative types.
The headlines in the trade rags and elsewhere bear this out:
- Media agency forecasters pull no punches: Smith, Coen and King see little hope for economic recovery anytime soon (subscription required)
- Ads subtracting: Massive job cuts seen across Madison Avenue
- Magazine ads evaporated in 2008, faster as months went on (subscription required)
- Most media to suffer retrenchment in 2009 (extensive but free subscription required)
The predictions call for even more bloodletting over the coming months. Which is to say, we could be in for the worst of it.
So, what to do? If you’re an agency type, where will you hunt for sustenance? A recent article in AdAge points the way, citing several areas that might make for good hunting grounds. (Comments in parentheses are mine):
- Washington D.C. (new gov’t, new spending)
- Package goods
- DRTV
- Beer (couldn’t agree more!)
- Online video
- Hispanics (with 30+ Hispanic cousins, I can verify this one)
- E-books
- Public relations
- Cable TV
- Marketing consulting (it was true in the last downturn: companies shed FTEs then bring in consultants)
- Digital out of home (see previous post: The shopper marketing revolution)
- Mobile (I’m getting an iPhone this year, recession or no!)
- Pet care
- Marketing analytics (yet another nail in the coffin of print and broadcast, which is barely measurable compared to online)
- CBS (huh?)
- Luxury recycling (2nd-hand yachts for pennies on the dollar!)
- China
- Package and fast food (Can a boom in the weight-loss industry be far behind?)
- Online coupons
- Gun sales (that huge clicking noise was the sound of millions of NRA members locking and loading)
Photo credit: GlobalJet
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